C-Circle – Economic Outlook for 2019

Date: Thursday, January 17, 2019
Time: 8:00am-10:00am
Location: Aricent
Altran Group
3979 Freedom Circle
First Floor Conference Room
Santa Clara, CA 95054


Are you a CEO or other C-level executive and wish to request to be part of these events?

 

ACG Silicon Valley’s C-Circle, now in its eighth year, proudly announces that it has attracted a following of approximately 400 CEOs and C-level executives and achieved a regular attendance of 35 executives per session.

Topic

Economic Outlook for 2019

The U.S. economic update and jobs reports for October and November show continued growth. The economic fundamentals remain strong. The current 3.7% unemployment rate is at its lowest point since the 1960s. This tighter labor market helped average wages and salaries to increase by more than three percent during the past year. Favorable labor market conditions are supporting both elevated consumer confidence and spending growth. Yet, higher interest rates, and the intention of the Federal Reserve to keep raising them into 2019, could create a more challenging environment for business next year. From a business perspective though, higher labor costs mean lower profits. Rising wages also place upward pressure on inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates faster to keep inflation near its two percent target. Capital costs for businesses are increasing. Fiscal stimulus measures, both tax cuts and increased government spending, helped support growth in 2018 but are also stretching the capital and labor resources of the economy and could provide less support to growth in 2019 as their effects taper off during the year. Recent equity market volatility, and the fall of key business confidence measures to levels signaling a slower pace of growth, demonstrate that firms will face a more uncertain business environment in 2019 relative to 2018.

Please join us for a stimulating discussion on the Economic Outlook for 2019. Our experts and guests will discuss the following issues.

  • What is the anticipated GDP growth in 2019?
  • What is the likely impact of trade tensions between the U.S. and China and the U.S. and the European Union?
  • Are these tensions likely to cause disruptions in supply chains and lead to shortages or inefficiencies in delivery products to customers?
  • What is the status of current economic productivity and what is the trend?
  • Will we see advances in technologies such as artificial intelligence have much of an impact on productivity in 2019?
  • How much in off-shore profits were repatriated in 2018? What will we likely see in 2019 in light of the changes in U.S. tax laws?
  • What impact will the recent market volatility have on consumer and business confidence levels?
  • Will the Federal Reserve continue to raise interest rates as predicted?
  • Will unemployment continue to fall or has it hit bottom?
  • What is the status of the U.S. dollar? Is it expected to rise or fall in 2019?
  • Energy prices have been volatile, what is the outlook for energy prices in 2019 and what impact will that have?
  • What is the outlook for the manufacturing sector?
  • What is the outlook for the economy in Silicon Valley in 2019?
  • What are the key driving factors?

 

Guest Experts

 

Scott Anderson, Ph.D.

EVP & Chief Economist
Bank of the West

Scott Anderson is a Chief Economist and Executive Vice President at Bank of the West. In this role he analyzes and forecasts international, national and regional economic trends for Bank of the West management, business lines and clients. He currently authors Instant Analysis reports of daily economic releases, a weekly U.S. Outlook Report with longer-term economic and interest rate forecasts. He also creates international chart books on China and European economies, as well as regional reports on the California Outlook and a broader Regional Quarterly Review report. As an experienced economic advisor in the financial services sector, Scott has consistently been recognized as one of the top economic forecasters in the country by Bloomberg and USA Today.

Scott was appointed Chairman of the American Bankers Association Economic Advisory Committee in 2012 and has served on the Committee since 2004. In 2015, he was appointed to the California Council of Economic Advisors. Among his numerous professional affiliations, Scott is a member of the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Professional Forecasters and the National Association of Business Economists.

Prior to Bank of the West, Scott was a Director and Senior Economist at Wells Fargo where he produced the macroeconomic forecast and was the author of global outlook reports, U.S. economic and financial commentary and regional California and Minnesota Outlook reports.

Scott earned his Bachelor’s Degree in Economics from the University of Minnesota and his Doctorate in Economics at George Washington University.

 

Christopher Combs

Portfolio Strategy Officer
Silicon Valley Capital Partners

Chris’ primary focus is to grow client capital in good times and protect it in bad times. Chris believes that up to 80% of a portfolios success in driven by macroeconomic forces. Chris explains that the biggest error we see investors make is owning reasonable, even good investments at the wrong time.
It’s not surprising that Chris has spent most of his career developing systems to understand and manage investment risk.

Chris started in the industry in 1985, accepting a US Bank executive training collegiate scholarship which provided comprehensive training while attending college. During this time, Chris was trained in US Bank’s well known technique of “Evaluating Business Ventures” or free cash flow analysis, which forever change his perception of value. Over 10 years, Chris also served in various capacities including credit analysis, trust services, branch banking operations, compliance and distribution system productivity planning.

In 1995, Chris left US Bank to work at Investors Diversified Services, where he remained for the next 8 years becoming “a student of the market”.

Silicon Valley Capital Partners was officially launched in July 31, 2003. Chris has enormous passion for his work as an investment and macroeconomic strategist, but mostly as a service provider to some very special relationships.

Chris holds a Bachelor of Science in Finance and Law from Portland State University.

 

Moderator

 

James C. Chapman

Partner
RIMON P.C.

Jim is a partner at Rimon P.C. where he focuses his practice on securities law, venture capital, mergers and acquisitions, and international business transactions. He counsels publicly traded and privately held clients on public offerings, private placements, debt financings, venture capital transactions, mergers and acquisitions, and related transactions. Jim also represents venture capital firms, angels, and family offices in their investments. With 30 years of experience in corporate and securities law, he has represented clients in over 300 mergers, acquisitions, and financing transactions.

Although he has been involved in transactions all over the world, Jim was also an early pioneer in representing companies in cross border transactions between the US and China. These transactions include both assisting Chinese companies investing and raising capital in the U.S. and helping U.S. enterprises acquire Chinese companies, transfer technology, enter into joint ventures and operate, in China. Jim has also been involved in negotiating resolutions to some of the most high-profile disputes involving US companies operating in China.

Jim’s US-China experience extends to a wide variety of industries including media, mobile, software, semiconductor, alternative energy, nanotechnology and pharmaceuticals. He has been recognized by Finance Monthly Global Awards, ACQ5 Global Awards and Corporate Live Wire as “China Investment Attorney of the Year” for 2015, 2016 and 2017 and by Corporate Intl Legal Awards and Global Law Experts as “China Investment Attorney of the Year- California” for 2015 and 2016. Prior to joining Rimon P.C, Jim was a partner with Morgan Lewis & Bockius LLP, a leading international law firm.

 

Are you a CEO or other C-level executive and wish to request to be part of these events?